The assassination of the Iranian bosses’ top military and intelligence leader, Major General Qassim Suleimani, is a big setback for the U.S. finance capitalists and their already weakened position in the oil-rich Middle East. While what may happen next is unpredictable, it’s clear that the world is more unstable today than it was before the New Year. As inter-imperialist competition intensifies, a global conflict over Iran seems more likely than ever—and with it, a looming threat to millions of workers’ lives.
Workers need to draw our own “red line” against all wars for profit, and against all the rulers who wage them. We must organize on the job and in the street to resist the bosses’ fascist, nationalist campaigns—to fight for a new world based on workers’ needs. A united international working class can turn imperialist war for profit into a revolutionary war for communism!
Setting off the powder keg
On January 3, Suleimani was killed by a drone strike at Baghdad International Airport, authorized by U.S. President Donald Trump. Suleimani, responsible for workers’ deaths on both sides of the imperialist fault line, “[was] instrumental to the steady spreading of Iran’s clout in the Middle East, which the United States and Tehran’s regional foes Saudi Arabia and Israel have struggled to keep in check”(NYTimes, 1/3).
 The assasination came after days of attacks and counterattacks between the U.S. and Iran. Tensions began building on December 27, when an Iranian rocket killed a U.S. military contractor near the Iraqi city of Kirkuk. Two days later, U.S. airstrikes targeted Iran-backed militia bases in both Iraq and Syria, killing dozens. In retaliation, pro-Iranian militias, plausibly directed by Suleimani, attacked the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad, the wartorn Iraqi capital. Then the U.S. drone killed Suleimani and at least four associates, including Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, a top Iraqi militia leader.
Five days after the assassination, Iran responded with more than a dozen missile strikes aimed at two U.S. military bases in Iraq. Though there were no reported casualties, it seems unlikely that the new wave of hostilities will end there. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s top capitalist boss, is calling for U.S. expulsion from the region. “At minimum, Iran will take a significant step toward enriching weapons-grade uranium…[but] perhaps the most provocative thing Iran could do is carry out a terrorist attack on the U.S. homeland or attempt to kill a senior U.S. official of Suleimani’s stature” (Foreign Affairs 1/3).
Meanwhile, Trump has threatened to counter Iranian retaliation with attacks on 52 sites in Iran, one for each of the U.S. hostages seized by Iran in 1979.
Trump defies both wings
Trump’s decision to murder Suleimani appears to be a high-risk tactic masquerading as political strategy. On its face, the move put Trump at odds with both wings of the U.S. ruling class: the Big Fascist imperialists, controlled by finance capital, and the Small Fascist, more domestically oriented bosses, spearheaded by the Koch family.
The Big Fascists know they’ll ultimately need a devastating ground war to protect their profits in the Middle East (and elsewhere) against rivals China and Russia, but aren’t nearly prepared for World War III at this time. The Council on Foreign Relations, the main wing’s leading think tank, took Trump to task for his “reckless” Iran policy:
Trump has been adamant about his lack of interest in starting a new war in the Middle East—and yet, here we are at the precipice….[E]ven if he shows uncharacteristic self-restraint in the coming weeks, the desire for revenge in Iran, and the political momentum that desire is already beginning to generate, may inevitably draw the United States and Iran into a major conflict (Foreign Affairs, 1/3).
To curtail this major conflict, the main wing is responding through the House of Representatives. As CHALLENGE goes to press, the House is expected to vote on a resolution to halt military actions against Iran unless approved by Congress. The Small Fascists are fine with quick-and-dirty air strikes, and over the last three years have consolidated an opportunistic alliance with Trump on most issues. But they view a globally deployed military—and any future investment in millions of boots on the ground—as a waste of their money. The Charles Koch Institute reacted with audible alarm to the hit on Suleimani: “President Trump should heed the mistakes of his predecessors and avoid getting sucked into another unnecessary war in the Middle East. The escalatory spiral we are now in with Iran risks such an imprudent and costly conflict” (1/3).
Trump’s latest mess shows just how much the Big Fascists’ surprise defeat in the 2016 presidential elections has cost them. The Terrorist in Chief may have thought he was one-upping Barack Obama’s 2011 assassination of Osama bin Laden, the al-Qaeda leader. But the New York Times, the main wing’s most reliable mouthpiece, pointed out a critical distinction: “General Suleimani was a senior official of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and openly targeting him was a sharp escalation in the conflict between the United States and Iran, all but taunting Iran to strike back. And that by a president who had previously demonstrated strong aversion to American involvement in the Middle East, contempt for intelligence from the region and occasional reluctance to order the use of military forces” (1/3).
U.S. imperialists have the most to lose
On January 5, Iraqi lawmakers voted to expel U.S. troops from the country. If the U.S. is ousted from Iraq (a huge setback for U.S. imperialism), the world’s second-largest oil producer, Iran will likely gain even more influence there. The U.S. bosses may not leave Iraq willingly, but it looks like they must fight to stay.
Not even Trump’s closest allies are standing by an increasingly isolated United States. Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain, reportedly angered by the drone strike, is slated to meet with Germany and France in coming days. “Secretary of State Mike Pompeo complained that … ‘the Europeans haven’t been as helpful as I wish they could be.’” (NYT, 1/5). Europe’s bosses are no doubt worried about the critical transit chokepoint at the Strait of Hormuz, a passage for 20 percent of the world’s oil trade. Iran has intermittently threatened to close the Strait even before the current crisis (NYT, 1/5).
China-Russia-Iran alliance fills void
The U.S’ declining power, and the volatility that accompanies it, is emboldening China and Russia’s role in the Middle East. Since December, Iran, China, and Russia have been running joint naval drills in the Indian Ocean and Gulf of Oman, adjacent to the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian admirals characterized the exercise as a demonstration of ‘’lasting security through cooperation and unity … [I]ts result will be to show that Iran cannot be isolated” (Reuters, 12/27).
As Asia Times (1/5) noted:
China “is the largest buyer of Iranian oil, China is Iran’s largest trading partner, and Iran is a key geographic node for the BRI [Belt and Road Initiative]….Should a US-Iran war break out and the Iranian government [be] overthrown, it would be devastating for China’s regional interests… With US hostility and ‘maximum pressure’ toward Beijing, Moscow and Tehran (all under US sanctions), Washington is driving all three to coalesce.”
Workers unite!
As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East heighten, U.S. workers must prepare to fight anti-Muslim racism and fascist campaigns against “terrorism” by the most deadly bosses in the world: the state terrorists of U.S. imperialism.  As the superpowers scramble to protect their oil reserves, trade routes, and profits, what’s most at stake are the lives of the international working class. Whenever the bosses are in conflict, whether its proxy or direct war, the burden always falls on our class. There are no good sides in this conflict. However one thing is certain: From Iran to the U.S. it is imperative that workers unite against the imperialist war mongerers who are ready to sacrifice our class in the name of maintaining their lethal empire.
It is the job of communists to be vigilant in fighting anti-Muslim racism and U.S. nationalism, as well as cynicism. Only a united working class can survive the coming crisis. Only a mass revolutionary communist party can smash the profit system and end inter-imperialist war for all time. Fight for communism! Join Progressive Labor Party!